Firearms prognostication, anyone?

In 2005, when the AWB expired, the market was flooded with AK's and surplus parts kits. No one, I think, predicted the parts kits drying up so soon, or unrest cutting off the supply of Romanian and Bulgarian AK's. As such, there has been a rise in domestic AK production.

Similarly, this is just my opinion, the supply of surplus curios and relics, and there ammo, have been drying up, at the same time as the popularity of the common AR, their parts, and ammo, has been increasing by leaps and bounds.

Anyone want to make a guess on the future? I saw this thread:
https://www.carolinashootersclub.com/threads/impulse-buy-today.230449/
(If the link ever dies, an FN-X 45), and it got me thinking.

Now that Republicans have the house, senate, and presidency, do you think that silencers will be removed from the NFA? Such noise-pollution safety devices, if made legally widely available, would have a profound impact on the gun market.

There is a raging debate of 9mm vs 45. Personally, I like 9mm. But I don't think anyone can deny that, suppressor wise, 45 is superior, being subsonic. If that is the case, would barrel threading be a common feature on most all 45 pistols sold in the near future?

Any thoughts on that? Any other guesstimates for the future?

 

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147gn 9mm is pretty common now and also subsonic

 

I'm going to say no. Because 45 cal. handguns are still sidearms meant to be carried, and silencers don't fit in well with that use. I do think threaded barrels will become a more sought after (and more expensive) aftermarket feature, especially during the year after the HPA becomes law.

 

I agree with this. Suppressed subsonic 9mm is in the mid to high 120s and .45ACP suppressed is in the low 130s (both fullsize cans) The tone is also different. Shot side by side, the difference is easily noticeable. Also the reason I went with a 9mm vs .45 suppressor when I got my first pistol can. I had a bunch of Fiocchi 158gr 9mm and the difference when I tested some pistol cans versus the 230gr Fiocchi .45 I shot was an easy choice.

 

In 2017:

• suppressors removed from NFA
• National reciprocity (with new federal regulations)
• 2A friendly justice replaces Scalia on SCOTUS

In 2018:

• SBRs removed from NFA
• Ginsburg retires or croaks. Another pro-2A Justice on SCOTUS
• universal background checks narrowly pass Congress and signed into law by Trump
• Hughes Amendment challenged in SCOTUS. Roberts leads the majority opinion upholding FOPA '86 restrictions based on government's public interest argument, with the backing of the Fraternal Order of Police.
• Republicans lose control of the Senate and lose a portion of their margin in the House

In 2019:

• Not a damned thing

In 2020:

• Trump seeks re-election

I want to be hopeful, but the cynic in me says the next 4 years are going to be a mixed bag. Most of our successes are going to depend upon us, and how we push Congress - 'cause they aren't going to push themselves.

We need to be on the phones

We need to be in their offices.

Their staff needs to know us by the sounds of our voices.

 

And they need to know us by our Votes

 

Other thoughts:

Obama M1 Garand, M1 Carbine, 1911, etc. import ban from Korea:
https://www.thetrace.org/2015/07/m1-rifle-antique-south-korea-import/

Obama ban of Izmash and Kalashnikov(Saiga and a ton of ammo makers):
http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/20...ns-import-izhmash-kalashnikov-saiga-firearms/

5.45 ATF ban:
http://www.guns.com/2016/08/11/court-rules-7n6-ammo-lawsuit-in-atfs-favor/

Norinco ban(Clinton and W. Bush)(Lots of firearms and cheap ammo):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norinco#Trade_disputes_with_the_United_States

Any of these being lifted in the coming years, y'all think?

 

Cheap chinese AK's?

Yes. Yes please.

 

from the start....."Anyone want to make a guess on the future?"
might as well, so here goes:
1. suppressors will disappear if the tax stamp does. lots of people buying, inadequate inventory. like 22LR.
2. AK's DIVE. wait for the $199 AK. super-duper deals.
3. .22LR BOGO at the Big Box. well, i can dream.