In talking with quite a few gun owners, it seems to me that 6 weeks after Sandy Hook, everyone who really wanted mags has gotten at least 2 or 3 30rd mags for each AR they own. Probably the same could be said for every firearm that accepts magazines with a capacity > 10rds.
Now we can argue about how many mags is 'sufficient' for the average rifle owner whose livelihood is not linked to their rifles, but for argument's sake, let's suppose it's 3 mags for each rifle, or more generally speaking, 3 mags for each firearm designed to accept mags of > 10rds.
My sense is that the trading in 'high capacity' mags at this point is mostly about hedging and/or speculation. I.e., guys are buying mags not because they desperately need them to achieve a minimum of 3 mags per rifle, but because they worry about a ban and having 'extra' mags serves multiple purposes:
1. get as many mags as you foresee needing for a very long time (mags are consumables) before prices potentially rise much higher under a ban
2. serves as a hedge - if there is an AWB, the profit you make on the mags (whether by cash sale or trade) will at least partially offset the cost increases associated with all pre-ban items
3. serves as a speculative tool to bet on the possibility of a ban - everyone understands that if any specific guns/parts are going to be banned, it is 'high capacity' mags. And of those 10rd+ mags, the most likely to be banned are AR/AK mags, making these mags the gun part that has the greatest speculative interest. Lowers have speculative interest as well, given how the last AWB was structured, but given the legality of flipping lowers, mags are a better option for non-FFLs. And of the AR mags, the new-in-bag PMAGs are probably the most liquid mag out there given it's popularity even before Sandy Hook and it's easily specified condition - new in bag. With used mags or usgi mags, traders have to worry about wear/tear, but new-in-bag mags are 'standardized' and obviate that concern.
What would support my contention that mags are being used to hedge and/or speculate is if a very large percentage of PMAGs bought in the last 6 weeks are still in their wrappers not because the owner hasn't had a chance to go to the range yet, but because he wants to keep them new-in-bag as a potential trading instrument (regardless of whether he has consciously thought this through or not).
Thoughts?
Now we can argue about how many mags is 'sufficient' for the average rifle owner whose livelihood is not linked to their rifles, but for argument's sake, let's suppose it's 3 mags for each rifle, or more generally speaking, 3 mags for each firearm designed to accept mags of > 10rds.
My sense is that the trading in 'high capacity' mags at this point is mostly about hedging and/or speculation. I.e., guys are buying mags not because they desperately need them to achieve a minimum of 3 mags per rifle, but because they worry about a ban and having 'extra' mags serves multiple purposes:
1. get as many mags as you foresee needing for a very long time (mags are consumables) before prices potentially rise much higher under a ban
2. serves as a hedge - if there is an AWB, the profit you make on the mags (whether by cash sale or trade) will at least partially offset the cost increases associated with all pre-ban items
3. serves as a speculative tool to bet on the possibility of a ban - everyone understands that if any specific guns/parts are going to be banned, it is 'high capacity' mags. And of those 10rd+ mags, the most likely to be banned are AR/AK mags, making these mags the gun part that has the greatest speculative interest. Lowers have speculative interest as well, given how the last AWB was structured, but given the legality of flipping lowers, mags are a better option for non-FFLs. And of the AR mags, the new-in-bag PMAGs are probably the most liquid mag out there given it's popularity even before Sandy Hook and it's easily specified condition - new in bag. With used mags or usgi mags, traders have to worry about wear/tear, but new-in-bag mags are 'standardized' and obviate that concern.
What would support my contention that mags are being used to hedge and/or speculate is if a very large percentage of PMAGs bought in the last 6 weeks are still in their wrappers not because the owner hasn't had a chance to go to the range yet, but because he wants to keep them new-in-bag as a potential trading instrument (regardless of whether he has consciously thought this through or not).
Thoughts?
